Duke - the end of an era or a momentary lull??

Just for fun - and to see how absurdly good Duke has been under head coach Mike Krzyzewski - here are some absolutely ridiculous numbers:

K's Record at Duke: 730-208
NCAA Record: 69-21 (most victories all time)
3 national championships
10 final fours
10 ACC tournament championships
11 ACC regular-season championships
9 years with 30 wins or more, 22 years with 20 wins or more

Take one minute and ponder those numbers. 730 wins with only 208 losses. TEN trips to the final four. That is the most impressive number of them all to me. These numbers are legendary and will go down in history as some of the most impressive of all-time. No one can ever question Coach K's ability to lead a team or develop a team toward March. (Recently this has been said but I think ridiculous when looking at the grand scheme. Has he forgotten how in the past few years? I tend to doubt it.)

However, in the past three years Duke has not been vintage Duke. Yes, they won the ACC title three years ago (an accomplishment that should never go un-noticed) but lost in the sweet sixteen with what many considered a favorite to win it all. Two years ago they went 22-11 and lost in the first round of the NCAA tourney to VCU. Last year, the record improved to 28-6 but the team faltered down the stretch (started 22-1) and lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament to West Virginia after beating Belmont, a #15 seed, by one point in round one. This year Duke again started hot but has been exposed recently with losses to Wake, a beating taken at Clemson, UNC, and BC last night. This team looks a lot like the last few with an early tourney exit imminent (not a guarantee but many can see the writing on the wall). What has happened?

One obvious point is made about Coach K and his Olympic commitment. That is what it was, a COMMITMENT. It took a ton of Coach K's summer time and sent a lot of Duke's summer responsibilities to the assistants. There is no possible way to have two full-time jobs that take as much time up as each of those do and not have something slip. One obvious spot is recruiting. Duke became accustomed throughout the majority of the 1990's and early 2000's to signing a nationally ranked top 3 class and many times a number one class. Duke had the elite talent. Here are some talent refreshers: Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill, Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, Shane Battier, Jason Williams, Chris Duhon, Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams. Every player listed above won some kind of National Player of the Year award except for Mike Dunleavy, who is now a starter and the leading scorer for the Indiana Pacers, and Chris Duhon, who is the starting PG for the New York Knicks. Maggette obviously did not because he was only at Duke for one season.

Is Duke still getting McDonalds All-Americans?? Yes. Have they, in the last few years gotten the top all-Americans and the overall best players?? No. This is a simple fact. Greg Paulus, Jon Scheyer, and Lance Thomas were McDonalds All-Americans but no one considered them to be the best of the best or the most elite players in the country. The recruiting slip has coincided with the Olympic commitment. This cannot be a coincidence.

The question is whether Coach K can get Duke back to an elite team in the country or is this how the end of his career is going to go? His mentor Bob Knight, suffered a similar small dip his last few years at Indiana. Can the same thing be expected here? I do not believe so. I have two main reasons:

1. While Coach K is sometimes stubborn and set in his ways, he is in no way as stubborn as Knight. Coach K has shown different shifts in offensive philosophy throughout his coaching career and I think at the end of this year he will step back, see that something isn't working, and make the necessary changes. He has a great track record for this. He has run his offense through bigs (Ferry, Laettner, Brand) and through guards (Williams, Redick). His defensive philosophy never waivers, and considering he is considered one of the best defensive coaches of all-time, that is probably a good thing.

2. Recruiting has already started to pick back up and will continue to do so. Coach K has always recruited remarkably well and this little dip over the last three years is just that, a dip. He is too competitive to go on like this for long. You have to have talent to win college basketball and Duke doesn't have the elite talent right now (after Henderson and Singler who on this Duke team will even make an NBA roster, let alone start?) If you look at Duke's 2009 and 2010 recruiting classes, things are already looking more like typical Duke. They have two bigs signed for 2009 in Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee. Plumlee is considered super athletic and many say he will be a college all-American. Kelly is a dual threat (inside and out) type of guy that Coach K said reminds him of Mike Dunleavy. While these two are very good, (both 5 stars on scout.com) K has himself stated that the 2010 class is where Duke will be back. He has already signed three great juniors in Andre Dawkins, Tyler Thornton, and Josh Hariston. Dawkins and Hairston are 5 star guys (Dawkins a combo guard and Hairston a 6'8" power forward) and Thornton a four star, pass first point guard. Duke is widely considered the leader to land Harrison Barnes, a 6'6" swingman, who is the number one small forward in the 2010 class and a top three player overall. They will likely try to add one or maybe two more kids to that class. With this in mind, I do not believe that Duke will be "down" for long. Coach K is too competitive to go out without at least a couple more good runs at national titles in him.

Duke, in my opinion, will be back to vintage Duke shortly. Coach K no longer has multiple commitments and will be back to focusing solely on Duke now, much like after coming back from back surgery when Duke went on a huge run. My advice is enjoy this while it lasts ACC, because Duke will be back before long with a rejuvenated, hungry Mike Krzyzewski.