Sunday, February 22, 2009

Big Week in ACC

This coming week is a big week for many teams in the ACC. Here is a rundown of some of the big games and who has the edge.

Sunday: Duke vs. Wake Forest
Winner is in a tie for second place and one game back of North Carolina. Loser is in fifth and will be in a bad spot in terms of trying to get a bye for the first round of the ACC tournament. Two top 10 teams nationally. Rematch of their game from a few weeks ago when Wake won on a last second inbounds play. Huge game all the way around.

Pick: Duke - it is at Cameron, Duke needs a win badly in conference, it is in Cameron, Duke will be looking for a little payback, I like Duke's line-up changes, and it is in Cameron.

Tuesday: Boston College vs. Florida State
Both teams are above .500 in conference play and poised to make the NCAA tournament. FSU can maintain a tie in second place with the win and continue to be one of the surprise teams in the conference. BC needs this game if it wants any chance of getting a top 4 seed in the ACC tourney and if they lose they go to 7-7 in conference play and put their NCAA chances slightly more at risk.

Pick: Boston College - BC is the home team, FSU is due for a loss (yeah, I know that is not the best reasoning in the world), and FSU is coming off a huge win at Virginia Tech and might not come into this game with the edge that they need.

Wednesday: Clemson vs. Virginia Tech
Clemson needs this to maintain their share of second place and keep pace with Wake, Duke, and FSU. This is Clemson's best team in quite some time and with a strong finish could be looking at a very high seed in the NCAA tournament. Virginia Tech continues to lose close games and needs a win desperately to maintain their hopes for a tournament bid.

Pick: Clemson - VT has not done a great job this year of protecting their home floor and I sense a real focus from Clemson this season. Prunell has them playing how he wants them to play and Clemson really has most of the weapons a team can ask for. Clemson, for a change, is sprinting towards the finish line rather than limping. They are the hotter team.

Thursday: Wake Forest vs. NC State
While NC State is not quite in the thick of the ACC race this could be a potentially huge game for both teams. State currently sits at 5-7 in league play and still has an outside shot at making the NCAA tournament (a 9-7 or 8-8 finish would probably be needed). This would be a huge win at Wake and a real resume booster if they were to finish 8-8 and be extremely on the bubble. This is only possible because of how much better State is playing lately since moving to their big line-up. For Wake, if they lose to Duke on Sunday, this game will be huge. They will not be able to afford another loss if they are in fifth after Sunday. Wake hasn't been playing great lately either and to continue to slide would severely hurt their ACC seeding chances as well as getting a good seed in the NCAA tournament.

Pick: Wake Forest - Wake will be at home and will really need this game if they lose Sunday as I predicted. Even if they were to win Sunday this game would still be huge in keeping them in second place and only one game back of UNC, whom they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with. State has been playing much better but a win at Wake will be tough with Wake's guard play being so good and State struggling at guard for much of the season.

Saturday: Clemson vs. Florida State
A game with potentially second place on the line. Both teams will be looking for a bye in the ACC tournament to give their resumes yet another boost for NCAA seeding. Both teams are very athletic and gifted defensively. Clemson will be looking for their first huge road win of the year as they have been a little better and more consistent on their home floor (as most teams are).

Pick: Florida State - FSU has been really good at home and Clemson will be playing their second tough road game in four days. Really hard to win both of those games.

Saturday: Duke vs. Virginia Tech
Duke will continue to try and keep pace in the race for second, and maybe first with UNC's loss to Maryland. VT will be amped at home and in desperate need of a big, resume boosting win in the worst way. Duke has been awful on the road in ACC play, especially over the past three weeks, and will want this win to reverse that trend.

Pick: Duke - VT usually plays Duke tough, especially at home, but I see Duke as a team on the rise coming down the stretch as opposed to struggling as they have in recent years. Their line-up changes have taken advantage of some of their athleticism and also helped them to not go through some of their long scoring droughts that plagued them previously this year. ACC road games for Duke are always tough though as the opposing team usually has their home stadium rocking.

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