Monday, February 23, 2009

Tyler Hansbrough - Is He Being Officiated Differently?

Much has been made recently about whether Tyler Hansbrough has been getting officiated differently recently in ACC games. People have been citing his lack of point production and noting how many fewer times he has been getting to the foul ine. Hansbrough has made a living throughout his college career of getting to the free throw line by drawing contact. His game is unorthodox in the way he shoots the basketball in the post many times and he seems to relish the contact that he gets from opposing defenders. He has shot a ton of free throws throughout his career. He is currently number two all-time NATIONALLY in free throws made during a career. Has he been officiated differently recently? He only shot four free throws against Maryland on Saturday. seven against NC State last week, and only two against Miami about a week ago.

The question to be answered is whether he is being treated differently by the officials because of the overwhelming amount of complaints targeted towards Hansbrough for his large volume of FT's shot and the no-calls on what some consider obvious travels throughout the course of his career.

While some referees may be looking at him slightly differently for whatever reason I do not think that all of the referees in the ACC got together and decided to completely change the way they view Tyler and all of the contact he attracts and draws in the paint. This would have been something that would have happened much earlier in his career and not with a month to go in his senior campaign. I see three main reasons he is not getting to the line as much.

First, he is not getting the ball as much. I think one would see, through looking at box scores from the last three weeks or so, that UNC is not looking to get Hansbrough as many touches. If he does not have the ball he cannot get fouled and go to the line. Ty Lawson has started to take over as the team's number one option recently and taken a much larger role shooting the basketball. Some would make the case that this is now "Ty Lawson's team". In UNC's game a week ago against Miami Hansbrough had the fewest shot attempts of any starter for UNC. He is simply not getting as many touches in the paint and this is one reason his FT attempts have gone down.

Second, teams have changed the way they defend Hansbrough. In Hansbrough's first couple of years and most of his junior year teams did not double team him all that often. With Hansbrough's strength and physicality down low he scored almsot at will by initiating contact with the defender and using that to create space and score enough points that he will probably break JJ Redick's ACC record for career points. I have noticed a distinct difference this year in watching UNC as to how opposing teams are defending him. As soon as he catches the ball this year he is getting doubled immediately. There are none of those late double teams or anything else. Just a straight, as soon as he gets the ball, double team. I believe teams noticed that Hansbrough is not an elite passer for a big man and while he can re-locate the ball out of a double team, he rarely makes a pass for a quick basket out of the double team. In essence, it doesn't hurt teams too badly to double Hansbrough because there is not a huge risk of the man that is then unguraded scoring a ton of points of Hansbrough assists. With double teams coming this quickly and often, Hansbrough is forced to pass the ball much more often than in his first three years at UNC and therefore cannot get to the line as often.

Third, even in one on one defense of Hansbrough, I have noticed a great difference in how he is defended when compared to other big men in the ACC. Not one big man from another team has tried to "body" Hansbrough when he catches the ball in the paint or establish their defensive position on him once he catches the ball. Rather, teams now are simply guarding him with a hair of a cushion and when he goes to shoot simply putting their hands straight into the air with no real attempt to block the shot. This is completely legal defense in every way and it does not allow Hansbrough to initiate contact and get a call. Hansbrough is supremely gifted in traffic at playing through contact and getting a shot off anyway. When teams don't allow him to initiate the contact and just put their arms up there is really no way the referees can call a foul. Previously, I had seen bigs from other teams over and over reach at the ball when Hansbrough shot it becuase it does look blockable at times with his low release point from around his shoulder on many post moves. They can't get to it though and it would lead to foul after foul after foul call and marches to the line for Tyler. With the way I have seen defense played on Hansbrough in one-on-one situations recently there is simply not much of a chance that Tyler will get a lot of calls becuase it is hard for refs to blow the whistle when all the defender is doing is standing straight up. He is allowed to be there after all.

Tyler Hansbrough will go down as one of the best to ever play in the ACC. There isn't really any way to argue that. He has been a point machine and won a lot of games for the Tar Heels over the past four years. There is a very good chance that he may be the last four-time all-American in college basketball. There are not very many guys that will stay four years that are first team all-Americans every year before. I see Hansbrough's lack of FT attempts and production over the past few weeks as something that other teams have done defending him and what his own team has done to defend him in a sense (not getting him his normal quantity of touches).

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Big Week in ACC

This coming week is a big week for many teams in the ACC. Here is a rundown of some of the big games and who has the edge.

Sunday: Duke vs. Wake Forest
Winner is in a tie for second place and one game back of North Carolina. Loser is in fifth and will be in a bad spot in terms of trying to get a bye for the first round of the ACC tournament. Two top 10 teams nationally. Rematch of their game from a few weeks ago when Wake won on a last second inbounds play. Huge game all the way around.

Pick: Duke - it is at Cameron, Duke needs a win badly in conference, it is in Cameron, Duke will be looking for a little payback, I like Duke's line-up changes, and it is in Cameron.

Tuesday: Boston College vs. Florida State
Both teams are above .500 in conference play and poised to make the NCAA tournament. FSU can maintain a tie in second place with the win and continue to be one of the surprise teams in the conference. BC needs this game if it wants any chance of getting a top 4 seed in the ACC tourney and if they lose they go to 7-7 in conference play and put their NCAA chances slightly more at risk.

Pick: Boston College - BC is the home team, FSU is due for a loss (yeah, I know that is not the best reasoning in the world), and FSU is coming off a huge win at Virginia Tech and might not come into this game with the edge that they need.

Wednesday: Clemson vs. Virginia Tech
Clemson needs this to maintain their share of second place and keep pace with Wake, Duke, and FSU. This is Clemson's best team in quite some time and with a strong finish could be looking at a very high seed in the NCAA tournament. Virginia Tech continues to lose close games and needs a win desperately to maintain their hopes for a tournament bid.

Pick: Clemson - VT has not done a great job this year of protecting their home floor and I sense a real focus from Clemson this season. Prunell has them playing how he wants them to play and Clemson really has most of the weapons a team can ask for. Clemson, for a change, is sprinting towards the finish line rather than limping. They are the hotter team.

Thursday: Wake Forest vs. NC State
While NC State is not quite in the thick of the ACC race this could be a potentially huge game for both teams. State currently sits at 5-7 in league play and still has an outside shot at making the NCAA tournament (a 9-7 or 8-8 finish would probably be needed). This would be a huge win at Wake and a real resume booster if they were to finish 8-8 and be extremely on the bubble. This is only possible because of how much better State is playing lately since moving to their big line-up. For Wake, if they lose to Duke on Sunday, this game will be huge. They will not be able to afford another loss if they are in fifth after Sunday. Wake hasn't been playing great lately either and to continue to slide would severely hurt their ACC seeding chances as well as getting a good seed in the NCAA tournament.

Pick: Wake Forest - Wake will be at home and will really need this game if they lose Sunday as I predicted. Even if they were to win Sunday this game would still be huge in keeping them in second place and only one game back of UNC, whom they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with. State has been playing much better but a win at Wake will be tough with Wake's guard play being so good and State struggling at guard for much of the season.

Saturday: Clemson vs. Florida State
A game with potentially second place on the line. Both teams will be looking for a bye in the ACC tournament to give their resumes yet another boost for NCAA seeding. Both teams are very athletic and gifted defensively. Clemson will be looking for their first huge road win of the year as they have been a little better and more consistent on their home floor (as most teams are).

Pick: Florida State - FSU has been really good at home and Clemson will be playing their second tough road game in four days. Really hard to win both of those games.

Saturday: Duke vs. Virginia Tech
Duke will continue to try and keep pace in the race for second, and maybe first with UNC's loss to Maryland. VT will be amped at home and in desperate need of a big, resume boosting win in the worst way. Duke has been awful on the road in ACC play, especially over the past three weeks, and will want this win to reverse that trend.

Pick: Duke - VT usually plays Duke tough, especially at home, but I see Duke as a team on the rise coming down the stretch as opposed to struggling as they have in recent years. Their line-up changes have taken advantage of some of their athleticism and also helped them to not go through some of their long scoring droughts that plagued them previously this year. ACC road games for Duke are always tough though as the opposing team usually has their home stadium rocking.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

ACC Football Recruiting: #2 - North Carolina

Recap: This is quite possibly UNC's best football recruiting class ever; at least their best in the modern era of college football (what I consider to be post 1970). The Heels landed the number eight class in the country as Butch Davis continues to leave his mark on the UNC football program and their recruiting prowess. North Carolina is a "brand" nationwide, certainly more so in basketball than football, but it definitely does not hurt in football if the right coach is in place. Davis appears to be that guy, at least in terms of capitalizing on UNC's recruiting potential, as he landed a class that can contend with pretty much any other class signed nationally this year.


Offense: UNC had great receivers last year in Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate. Tate used his last year of eligibility this past fall and Nicks left after his junior season (this past season) to enter the NFL draft. With their top two receivers gone and only Greg Little returning with anything resembling experience, wide receiver became a priority area for the Heels. Davis did not disappoint in this area. UNC signed four wide receivers in this class, headlined by Jheranie Boyd. Boyd was highly coveted nationally as rivals.com considered him to be the third best wide receiver in the 2009 high school senior class. Blessed with natural size (6'2") and great speed (4.45 40 yd. dash), Boyd should have a chance to make an instant impact for Carolina. Davis also inked a commitment from Joshua Adams, another four star receiver according to rivals.com. Adams is more of a possession guy at 6'4" but is pretty quick and was a great get for the Heels wide receiver corps. Davis and his staff also landed Bryn Renner, a pro-style QB out of Virginia. He is ranked on rivals.com as the number five QB in the country. Along the offensive line, UNC signed Brennan WIlliams, a highly coveted 4 star offensive lineman ranked as the number 13 tackle in the country.

Defense: Davis and his staff are recruiting defensive speed much the same way he did at Miami (or at least trying to). The defensive signings for the Heels this year are led by five star defensive end Donte Moss. Moss picked the Heels over Florida, Clemson, and Virginia Tech among others. He is ranked as the number two defensive end on rivals.com. Butch Davis was able to keep this blue-chip prospect in-state. The Tar Heels also singed three four star linebackers in Hawatha Bell, Justin Dixon, and Kevin Reddick. Dixon ranks as the number nine ILB in the class, Bell the number 14 ILB, and Reddick is entering from Hargrave Military Academy. The Heels also were able to land four star DT Jared McAdoo from Chapel Hill High School. McAdoo is 6'2" and 285 lbs. entering college and ranked on rivals.com as the number 12 DT in the country. The Heels were able to land him in a heated area recruiting battle with NC State and South Carolina among others.

UNC signed what is perhaps their best football signing class in history this year and should continue to help Davis turn the UNC football program around and make it a perennial ACC contender. The only thing to worry about for UNC fans is the revolving door of assistant coaches that has been in Chapel Hill the past couple of years. UNC has lost three assistant coaches this offseason and this could hurt recruiting in the future. Staff continuity is huge in college football as far as building a program is concerned and North Carolina has not been able to keep anything close to a constant staff together in Davis' two years at Carolina. Other than this, things (and talent) are looking up in Chapel Hill.

Monday, February 16, 2009

Duke - the end of an era or a momentary lull??

Just for fun - and to see how absurdly good Duke has been under head coach Mike Krzyzewski - here are some absolutely ridiculous numbers:

K's Record at Duke: 730-208
NCAA Record: 69-21 (most victories all time)
3 national championships
10 final fours
10 ACC tournament championships
11 ACC regular-season championships
9 years with 30 wins or more, 22 years with 20 wins or more

Take one minute and ponder those numbers. 730 wins with only 208 losses. TEN trips to the final four. That is the most impressive number of them all to me. These numbers are legendary and will go down in history as some of the most impressive of all-time. No one can ever question Coach K's ability to lead a team or develop a team toward March. (Recently this has been said but I think ridiculous when looking at the grand scheme. Has he forgotten how in the past few years? I tend to doubt it.)

However, in the past three years Duke has not been vintage Duke. Yes, they won the ACC title three years ago (an accomplishment that should never go un-noticed) but lost in the sweet sixteen with what many considered a favorite to win it all. Two years ago they went 22-11 and lost in the first round of the NCAA tourney to VCU. Last year, the record improved to 28-6 but the team faltered down the stretch (started 22-1) and lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament to West Virginia after beating Belmont, a #15 seed, by one point in round one. This year Duke again started hot but has been exposed recently with losses to Wake, a beating taken at Clemson, UNC, and BC last night. This team looks a lot like the last few with an early tourney exit imminent (not a guarantee but many can see the writing on the wall). What has happened?

One obvious point is made about Coach K and his Olympic commitment. That is what it was, a COMMITMENT. It took a ton of Coach K's summer time and sent a lot of Duke's summer responsibilities to the assistants. There is no possible way to have two full-time jobs that take as much time up as each of those do and not have something slip. One obvious spot is recruiting. Duke became accustomed throughout the majority of the 1990's and early 2000's to signing a nationally ranked top 3 class and many times a number one class. Duke had the elite talent. Here are some talent refreshers: Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill, Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, Shane Battier, Jason Williams, Chris Duhon, Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams. Every player listed above won some kind of National Player of the Year award except for Mike Dunleavy, who is now a starter and the leading scorer for the Indiana Pacers, and Chris Duhon, who is the starting PG for the New York Knicks. Maggette obviously did not because he was only at Duke for one season.

Is Duke still getting McDonalds All-Americans?? Yes. Have they, in the last few years gotten the top all-Americans and the overall best players?? No. This is a simple fact. Greg Paulus, Jon Scheyer, and Lance Thomas were McDonalds All-Americans but no one considered them to be the best of the best or the most elite players in the country. The recruiting slip has coincided with the Olympic commitment. This cannot be a coincidence.

The question is whether Coach K can get Duke back to an elite team in the country or is this how the end of his career is going to go? His mentor Bob Knight, suffered a similar small dip his last few years at Indiana. Can the same thing be expected here? I do not believe so. I have two main reasons:

1. While Coach K is sometimes stubborn and set in his ways, he is in no way as stubborn as Knight. Coach K has shown different shifts in offensive philosophy throughout his coaching career and I think at the end of this year he will step back, see that something isn't working, and make the necessary changes. He has a great track record for this. He has run his offense through bigs (Ferry, Laettner, Brand) and through guards (Williams, Redick). His defensive philosophy never waivers, and considering he is considered one of the best defensive coaches of all-time, that is probably a good thing.

2. Recruiting has already started to pick back up and will continue to do so. Coach K has always recruited remarkably well and this little dip over the last three years is just that, a dip. He is too competitive to go on like this for long. You have to have talent to win college basketball and Duke doesn't have the elite talent right now (after Henderson and Singler who on this Duke team will even make an NBA roster, let alone start?) If you look at Duke's 2009 and 2010 recruiting classes, things are already looking more like typical Duke. They have two bigs signed for 2009 in Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee. Plumlee is considered super athletic and many say he will be a college all-American. Kelly is a dual threat (inside and out) type of guy that Coach K said reminds him of Mike Dunleavy. While these two are very good, (both 5 stars on scout.com) K has himself stated that the 2010 class is where Duke will be back. He has already signed three great juniors in Andre Dawkins, Tyler Thornton, and Josh Hariston. Dawkins and Hairston are 5 star guys (Dawkins a combo guard and Hairston a 6'8" power forward) and Thornton a four star, pass first point guard. Duke is widely considered the leader to land Harrison Barnes, a 6'6" swingman, who is the number one small forward in the 2010 class and a top three player overall. They will likely try to add one or maybe two more kids to that class. With this in mind, I do not believe that Duke will be "down" for long. Coach K is too competitive to go out without at least a couple more good runs at national titles in him.

Duke, in my opinion, will be back to vintage Duke shortly. Coach K no longer has multiple commitments and will be back to focusing solely on Duke now, much like after coming back from back surgery when Duke went on a huge run. My advice is enjoy this while it lasts ACC, because Duke will be back before long with a rejuvenated, hungry Mike Krzyzewski.

Monday, February 9, 2009

Team by Team: ACC Football Recruiting #1 Florida State

I am going to try and do a team by team review of each team's football recruiting in the ACC. I will start with the team with the best class, this year FSU, and go down from there.

Recap: FSU has recruited well for decades under Bobby Bowden and this year was no different. According to rivals.com, the 'Noles signed the number six class in the country. With head coach in waiting Jimbo Fisher giving the program a national sense of stability, FSU was able to attack the recruiting trail with more success this year than maybe the past 3 or 4. Here are the offensive and defensive breakdowns for the Florida State football class of 2009.

Offense: Florida State signed two five star prospects, but both are on the defensive side of the ball. With that said, this class is stocked with playmakers and the usual FSU speed. WR Rodney Smith is ranked as the number eight receiver in the country and number 65 regardless of position. He had offers from Tennessee, Auburn, and Ole Miss among others but the Seminoles were able to keep the 6'6" receiver in state. The 'Noles also signed two four star backs in Lonnie Pryor and Chris Thompson. This has been a position that has underperformed lately for FSU and getting these two guys was definitely a huge coup. Both run under 4.5 forty yard dashes and Pryor also weighs almost 200 lbs. The offensive line had been woeful over the past five years but had shown considerable improvement under Rick Trickett last year. The Noles signed 3 offensive lineman in this class, with one four star and two three star guys. Aubrey Phillips is the four star, signed to play tackle and goes 6'6" and 310 lbs. He is rated the #25 tackle in the country. The Noles signed one QB, Will Secord (***) but this was not a huge position of need for them with their youth returning along with top 5 QB recruit from last year E.J. Manuel.

Defense: This is where the Seminoles stockpiled some serious talent and athleticism. Both of their five star signees were on this side of the ball in DT Jacobbi McDaniel and DB Greg Reid. Reid was a huge late sign for the Noles as he is rated as the #4 DB in the country and had offers from just about everywhere in the country. McDaniel will be the prototypical DT for the Seminoles in the coming years, decent size but extremely quick and will wreak havoc in opposing backfields. The Noles also scored a commitment from Willie Downs, graded as an ATH on rivals.com but will most likely end up on the defensive side of the ball, most likely at safety replacing Myron Rolle. Downs is a ballhawk and a heck of a playmaker. Other four star defensive commits included DE Demonte McAllister (#4 DE), DB Jajuan Harley (#12 DB), DE Brandon Jenkins (#13 DE), and LB C.J. Mizell (#19 LB). Gerald Demps is also regarded as somewhat underrated at three stars and is another addition to the Seminoles defensive backfield.

Special Teams: While I will not probably have a section for every teams' ST, FSU deserves one. They got a commitment from the number ONE kicker in the country this year in Dustin Hopkins, from Texas. Rivals also rates him the kicker with the strongest leg and fourth most accurate leg of kickers that will be heading to a college campus this fall.

Overall, the Seminoles signed a great class that should propel them in the coming years back towards the top of the national polls. This class, along with last year's great class, should have Bobby Bowden going out a winner, whenever that is, and give new coach Jimbo Fisher plenty to work with. Serious defensive talent in this class!!

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

National Signing Day - ACC Rundown

I wanted to give a brief recap of ACC recriting in football now that signing day has come and almost passed. I will give a team by team breakdown in the coming weeks but wanted to hit the ACC as a whole. I am going to list the teams by their national ranking for team recruiting (according to rivals.com) and list a couple of their commitments and overall how I see their class. Again, more in-depth team by team breakdown to come....

6. Florida State - 21 commits, 2 *****, 10 ****, 8 ***
DT Jacobbi McDaniel is ranked 5 stars by rivals.com and the number two defensive tackle in the country.
DB Greg Reid is ranked 5 stars by rivals.com and the number four defensive back in the country.
Recap: Pretty much the same old, same old for FSU. They always pull in good talent, and this class along with last year's should put them back in the national picture in a couple of years. While FSU did miss out on a few targets they would have loved (David Oku and Andre Debose to name a couple) this class is filled with typical FSU speed and size.

8. North Carolina - 29 commits, 1 *****, 13 ****, 10***
DE Donte Moss is ranked 5 stars by rivals.com and the number two defensive end in the country.
WR Jheranie Boyd is ranked 4 stars by rivals.com and the number three wide receiver in the country. Had offers from just about everyone in the nation including Florida and Oklahoma.
Huge class for the Heels. 29 commits is off the charts and 24 of their commits are given three stars or more. Butch Davis continues to fulfill his reputation as a huge recruiter and should continue to move the Heels in the right direction in the ACC. While Davis' coaching decisions down the stretch in games this past year can be questioned, his ability to attract and sign top talent cannot.

11. Miami - 20 commits, 1 *****, 9 ****, 8 ***
Ray Ray Armstrong is ranked 5 stars by rivals.com and the number one athlete in the country.
Brandon Washington is an OL from prep school, ranked 4 stars by rivals.com and is a behemoth at 6'5" and 330 lbs.
A solid class for Randy Shannon. Miami needed playmakers at lots of positions at got some with Armstrong, RB Lamar Miller, and DB Brandon McGee. A top 15 class nationally is never a bad thing. Not quite vintage Miami with this class, but getting closer.

24. Virginia Tech - 24 commits, 5 ****, 14 ***
Logan Thomas is ranked 4 stars by rivals.com, and the number one tight end in the country.
David Wilson is ranked 4 stars by rivals.com, and the number four running back in the country. He possesses legit 4.4 speed.
Frank Beamer never quite signs the players with all the stars but somehow his players always seem to be better than yours on Saturdays. This is probably slightly better than their average class being ranked top 25 nationally. Thomas should be a star at the TE position

26. Maryland - 26 commits, 6 ****, 16 ***
DE DeOnte Arnett is ranked 4 stars by rivals.com, and the number six defensive end in the country.
D.J. Adams is ranked 4 stars by rivals.com, and the number 29 running back in the country. Had offers from Florida and Clemson, among others.
Good class for "The Fridge". Found some playmakers and did a good job of recruiting up and down the east coast this year to find talent. Signed two 3 star qb's to try and solidify that position in the future.

34. Virginia - 25 commits, 5****, 11***
Morgan Moses: **** OT, number five in the country at his position
Oday Aboushi: **** OT, number 23 in the country at his position
UVA continues to recruit and get commitments from great offensive lineman and they may have found a gem in RB Dominique Wallace, listed as the #1 FB in the country put possessing 4.48 speed

37. Clemson - 12 commits, 7****, 4***
Tajh Boyd: ****QB, number four in the country at his position: huge coup for the Tigers, MVP of the Army All-American game. Offers from Ohio St., Penn St. among others.
Bryce McNeal: ****WR, number ten in the country at his position
Sub-par class when compared to last few years. Due to the coaching change and lack of recruiting time and some de-commits after Tommy Bowden left. Boyd is a huge pick-up though and could be a star.

49. Georgia Tech: 21 commits, 1****, 17***
J.C. Lanier: ****DT, number 31 in the country at his position
Jordan Luallen: ***QB, number 13 at his position: should be a great fit in Johnson's system
Solid class for Johnson's first. 18 players at 3 stars or better. Will be by far the most talent he has ever coached with. Scary thought.

51. Duke: 27 commits, 2****, 13***
Desmond Scott: ****RB, number five in the country at his position: Had offers from Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and Auburn among others
John Drew: