UNC...NIT??

Lets start with this. The title of this post is a joke. I don't believe that UNC losing to two ranked ACC opponents in a row equals them being in real danger of not making the NCAA tournament. The only real alarming loss for UNC this season is to College of Charleston a week or so ago. There have been some positives and obviously some negatives this year for the defending national champs. Here are a few of them on each side.

Positives

1. Ed Davis' development: The last two games haven't been Davis' best (4 pts. 4 rebs. vs Clemson and 12 pts. and 8 rbs. against GT) but overall this year Davis has shown great improvement from a year ago. He is averaging 14.7 pts and 9.8 rebounds for the year and has been the Tar Heels most consistent player.

2. Dexter Strickland: The highly touted freshman started slowly, struggling to adapt to his role as a PG at Carolina after being a SG his entire high school career. The last few games, however, Strickland might have been the Tar Heels best PG. Against Clemson particularly, he might have been the only player to show up in UNC's worst performance of the year.

Negatives

1. Marcus Ginyard: Unfortunately he has not had the year that UNC fans were hoping and the media (who picked UNC to win the ACC and #4 nationally preseason) thought he would. He has been a decent perimeter defender (but not as good as pre-injury) but hasn't provided the consistent scoring on the wing that UNC needs to make their offense go. He is only averaging 9.4 points on the year. Ginyard's role cannot be fully stated just in stats (his leadership is huge for this team) but if UNC is going to turn around from a less than stellar start they need more perimeter scoring. If they don't get it, teams will continue to solely focus on UNC's inside guys and take their chances on UNC beating them from the perimeter.

2. John Henson: For a guy that was rated the #4 overall prospect nationally in last years' high school class, he certainly has not fulfilled the role that UNC fans were hoping and probably Roy Williams was hoping. He really doesn't have a position at this point in his career. His frame is too thin to play in the post but he doesn't, at this point, have the quickness, shot, or ball handling ability to play on the wing. He has a great feel for blocking shots and should be a good rebounder during his career. UNC needs more than that from Henson though.

Has UNC's season been a disappointment so far? It depends on how you look at it. Their six losses were to teams currently ranked 24, 4, 2, 19, 18, and then the College of Charleston upset. They have also beaten teams currently ranked 15 (Ohio St. ) and 9 (Michigan St.). They are 1-2 in ACC play but again, those losses were to GT and Clemson (ranked 19 and 18 respectively).

The biggest problem for UNC thus far has been expectations. This was a predominately young team with zero proven guys on the perimeter (unless you want to count Ginyard) and guard play wins in college basketball. Had UNC been picked to be a top 25 team that would finish somewhere between second and fifth in the ACC then the level of panic would be far less. Roy Williams is a kind of a victim of his own success this year as people just expected UNC to keep rolling. That probably was not going to be possible considering what they lost last year (do the names of Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington, Green, and Frasor ring a bell?).

Lastly, I didn't want to list this in the negative column but I haven't been overly impressed with some of Roy Williams' coaching this year. He has said on multiple occasions on TV this year before and during games that his job for this year was to get the new guys to run just as fast as his previous couple of years' teams had. This team is not ready for that. They don't have the PG to make the great decisions on the run or the three point specialist from the wing to get all the kick-outs from the point guard's drive and kick. Simply put, this team is not built to be an up-tempo team. I think Williams would be better suited to slow it down, play more of a half-court game, and run only when the opportunity presents. UNC's best asset this year is in the post and they negate some of that with their always running style. Recruits might not think it is as glamorous watching UNC play a half court game, but it might would help them win more games. Not to mention in a half court game they would not have to score as many points to win, and they are not as explosive as in years past.

UNC is by no means in BIG trouble but they need to start winning games to regain some confidence. Their next five games are all against unranked opponents before their first meeting with Duke. UNC, currently at 1-2, could easily be 6-2 heading into the game against Duke and then the perception around UNC would be much different.